Moore's Law

Moore's Law was formulated empirically and states that the number of transistors in a microprocessor doubles every two years, while prices are halved during the same period.

Origins

The law was proposed by Gordon Moore in April 1965. Moore graduated from CalTech and, in 1968, co-founded Intel. In a microprocessor, transistors are the components that enable the mathematical operations needed for a computer to function. By the early 1970s, microprocessors contained 2,300 transistors.

Observing advancements in technology, Moore initially estimated that the number of transistors would double every year, but 10 years later, he adjusted his prediction to every two years.

Is Moore’s Law Accurate?

Over time, Moore's Law has been monitored and has proven accurate. From the 2,000 transistors processors contained in the early 1970s, by 2017, they had reached 1 billion.

Another implication of Moore's Law is that prices decrease by half within this two-year period. This means that a PC costing $1,000 today would cost $500 for an equivalent model in two years.

This trend in the miniaturization of transistors has enabled the creation of smartphones that fit in the palm of our hands and are far more powerful than computers from the 1980s.

As an interesting fact, the iPhone 5 is 1,300 times more powerful than the Apollo 11 computer (which took the first humans to the Moon).

Limits of Moore's Law

It is estimated that Moore's Law has a limit, and we are approaching that limit. Initially, the law was expected to hold for about 20 years, but it has now been accurate for over 50 years.

In an interview, Carlos Clerencia, Intel's Director in Spain (2016), stated that the industry still has the capacity to continue doubling the number of transistors in processors. One factor that has contributed to the persistence of this law is the competition among companies that manufacture circuits.

Perhaps there is also a challenge for companies to keep meeting this law and releasing increasingly powerful devices. However, it is believed that there will be a limit to processors in the near future.

Other Applications

Moore's Law has been analyzed in fields beyond microprocessors and has been found to apply in areas such as storage (hard drives), data mining, energy, map analysis, among others.

The limitless curiosity of humans and their desire for improvement drive the creation of new and better ways to solve problems. This constant evolution keeps technology advancing.

Can you imagine where we could be if this level of progress continues for a couple more decades?

The Only Constant in Life Is Change. - Heraclitus